Tehran likely to feel that retaliatory military action against israel is not currently in its interests. Since 2012, its strategy has been a form of controlled pragmatism. Iran would not be able to maintain its current level of support to assad if this air route were interdicted through a nofly zone or rebel capture of syrian airfields. Iran is changing its strategy in turn, as lappin explains. Request pdf irans isis policy this article assesses irans strategy in dealing with the threat of the islamic state in iraq and syria isis. This counts as a victory for the group of iran, syria, iraq and hezbollah against the group backed by the united states. Since the beginning of the civil war in syria in 2012, iran has had a growing presence in the country. The syria connection to iran, afghanistan and china the. A strategy to push back iran in syria the daily beast. Previously on the verge of collapse, the regime has been able to resist the opposition and their foreign backers thanks to the iranian skilful strategies, and is now gaining the upper hand. Opposition gains in syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes between baghdad and damascus, and the relative paucity of iranian portvisits in syria suggests that iran s sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. The irgc has continued to pump thousands of fighters into syria to prop up the murderous assad regime and help make that country 71,000 square miles of kill zone.
Iranian strategy in syria institute for the study of war. The department of defense has issued an unusually detailed dod budget request for iraq and syria entitled the justification for fy 2018 overseas contingency operations oco counterisis train and equip fund ctef. Irans growing influence in syria and its efforts to improve hezbollahs strategic capacities presents israeli decisionmakers with a sense of urgency to act now while the future settlement in syria is still being shaped in order to avoid a fait accompli of an iranian stronghold on israels northern border. Hezbollah is part of the iranian strategy, obaid said. His coming to power in 2000, followed by the iraq war in 2003. The islamic republic of iran and the syrian arab republic are close strategic allies, and iran has provided significant support for the syrian government in the syrian civil war, including logistical, technical and financial support, as well as training and some combat troops. Syria and iraq is connected to a four decadelong proxy war that iran is. A starboard beam view of iranian alvand class frigate underway. Iran center for strategic and international studies.
The implications of the syrian war for new regional orders in. Iransyria relations improved dramatically after the iranian revolution of 1979. The best strategy to roll back iranian influence is to weaken it in syria by denying it the resources it has invested in through the assad regime, randa slim, a scholar with the washington. Understanding irans role in the syrian conflict rusi. Russian and iranian investment and american withdrawal in syria. Iran began its military involvement in syria in 2011, at the outbreak of the civil war in the. Before joining the atlantic council in july 2018, he was a. An analysis of the rhetoric employed by the persian press. Syria a senior us official, citing multiple rebel commanders, said iranians were fighting alongside hezbollah and syrian government troops in the continuing battle for the border town of qusair.
Push back on iran in yemen, and they might well stir up. Over the past 18 months, the israeli air force iaf struck no fewer 200 targets across syria in response to irans drive to turn syria into a second lebanon, and create a new iranianrun army there. As assad was losing ground from 2011 to october 20, iran became heavily involved in maintaining the current regime in power. Irans military chief met with syrian president bashar alassad on thursday during a visit to damascus to set out a joint military strategy, syrias state news agency reported, a sign of deepening. Michael segall amid the intensifying crisis in syria, which in recent weeks has seen massacres of the civilian population in various parts of the country, iranian military, propaganda, and. Its rebrandingas jabhat fateh al sham in 2016 reflects alqaedas strategy of guided transformation. The section describes these strategic areas as useful syria and argues that the iranian military strategy in syria revolves around defending and securing these areas in order to serve the iranian regimes interests in a. We wont allow an iranian chokehold in syria, whatever the cost, the times of israel apr.
Postrevolution iran represented an opportunity for syrian president hafez alassad to find a. The overthrow of assad is the worst thing that can happen to iranian government and hezbollah. Opposition gains in syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes between baghdad and damascus, and the relative paucity of iranian portvisits in syria suggests that irans sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. Iri proxy groups are considered part of the axis of resistance, which the iranian leadership views as an ideological and security extension of the islamic republic. Iran, syria, russia and china are planning the biggestever wargames in the middle east, according to an unconfirmed report on the semiofficial iranian news site fars news. In this section we will look at iran s main objectives in syria and will sum up the strategies of the other main actors that iran has to react to. For iran, bashar alassad has been a valuable ally but not an indispensable one. Irans heavy involvement in syria has prevented the fall of the assad regime so far. Extreme neoconservative activist daniel pipes wrote in the rightwing washington times in 20 that the us strategy in syria should be helping whichever side is losing, so as to prolong their conflict just as the us did in the iraniraq war in the 1980s it has increasingly looked like this has become the us policy in syria. As per its national military strategy, and restrained by its limited highend conventional capabilities, tehran is projecting force into syria by training, arming, and advising local and foreign shia militias which act as lightinfantry forces. Issue brief the evolving iranian strategy in syria.
Iranian strategy in syria will fulton, joseph holliday, sam wyer may 20. Syrias strategic alliance with egypt ended around the same time due to egypts treaty with israel. Naame shaam is a group of iranian, syrian and lebanese activists that focuses on uncovering the role of the iranian regime in syria. Irans hedging strategy aims to ensure, however, that it can continue to pursue its vital interests if and when the regime collapses, using parts of syria as a base as long as the syrian opposition fails to establish full control over all of syrian territory. Pdf iranian strategy in iraq and syria walter posch. Before losing kobane, the islamic state was at the peak of its. Mariam karouny, alqaeda in syria tried to merge with a major rival. Franc milburn, irans land bridge to the mediterranean. It is a subsidiary of the iranian revolutionary guards corps irgc, which functions as a second army tasked with guarding irans islamic system of government. Our greatest concern with the iranian nuclear deal is an issue that is only just starting to get the attention in the public debate that it deserves. Iranian naval and m aritime strategy by christopher harmer middle east security report 12 r. Iranian objectives will diverge in syria as time wears on. Introduction iranian combat operations in syria reveal the regimes determination and ability to develop conventional military capabilities for use in expeditionary operations in the middle east. Assessing options for regime change daniel byman, michael doran, kenneth pollack, and salman shaikh.
Topics covered in this section include but are not limited to, completion of irans missile, rocket, and nuclear programs. Assad regime present in syria is extremely important for both iran and hizballah because syria has been the center state that has facilitated the growth of hizballah and their communication with iran. A hoover institution essay on middle east strategy challenges syriairaq limiting iranian influence implies returning to realpolitik fabrice balanche since its january 2015 defeat by the syrian democratic forces in kobane, the islamic state has continued to steadily lose territory. Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Any such american strategy needs to take account of the way that, in the middle east, everything is connected. In recent years, the strategic alliance between iran and hezbollah has grown to the point where the lebanese militant groups fealty to tehran is. Irans plan for syria without assad the national interest. Our specialists combine incountry experience, language skills, and. It carries out covert missions behind enemy lines, trains and arms iranian proxies such as hezbollah. This ironically named operation is an openended aggression on syrian territory with broad aims to take land from the u. Especially the presence of shiite militias orchestrated by tehran was in the center of western, arab and of course israeli critique. The role of iranian security forces in the syrian bloodshed. Has irans success in syria made it an arena for longer. Breaking down iran and russias military strategy in syria.
Iran is also trying to create a zone of influence in syrias east while strengthening its deterrence against israel and the united states. Syria is key to irans strategic efforts in the middle east. In recent years iran s activities in syria have been severely criticised. As in other syrian regions, irans first contact with deir ezzor began following. Civil war in syria, iran and iranian strategy in syrian. The air line of communication between iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria. Iranian general, assad discuss joint military strategy. The iranian land corridor to the mediterranean fdd. Iran s strategy in syria needs to be calibrated against those of its competitors and foes in the theater and coordinated with those of its allies. Iran and russia are partners in supporting the assad regime in syria, and they have common interests in the caspian. Iranian officials have sought to engage with some historic u. Israels strategy of banking on a muted iranian response. Traditional regional studies literature focuses on korean issues within the asia paci. Iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria.
The hezbollah connection in syria and iran council on. Iran perpetuates a conflict that has displaced more than 6 million syrians inside the 6 million. Syrias alliance with iran this is the fifth in a series of usipeace briefings on syria published by the institutes center for conflict analysis and prevention. Syria, iran, russia and china plan joint war games. Iranian academic spells out irans position in the middle east and questions us policy toward the region. Data i have collected from persian online sources show at least 349 iranian nationals. The impact of the new syrianiranian alliance was most visible in iraq and. Local young men appear to have three main motives for joining. And how has iranian strategy evolved over the course of the war. The nusra front in syria has been the most successful test of this alqaeda model. Israels strategy of banking on a muted iranian response in syria may backfire.
Now estimated to have as many as 10,000 operatives in syria, iran has committed. Dprksyriairan nuclear nexus and strategic implications for israel and the rok by christina y. Irans foreign policy principles irans strategy in its hostile surrounding region has been a matter of controversy over the past decades. A hoover institution essay on middle east strategy. It appears that the obama administration eventually. Syria and iran have been joining forces for almost four decades and have had a major impact on the developments in the middle east. Afghan fighters in the iraniantrained fatemiyoun division, on the front line near palmyra, syria, in june. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Iran sees the survival of the syrian government as being crucial to its regional interests. While peace talks between the regime of bashar alassad and its opponents were floundering in montreux last month, iran was quietly escalating its support for damascus by increasing the number of highlevel military advisors it provides to the syrian army. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian.
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